The Middle East Crisis Proves the Case for U.S. LNG

By Anne Bradbury

June 8, 2026

There is a persistent and politically convenient claim floating around Washington and the media: that exporting natural gas drives up prices for American families. It’s an easy conclusion to jump to, and it’s wrong. The current crisis in the Middle East is demonstrating why.

Since the Iran conflict disrupted Strait of Hormuz LNG traffic, cutting roughly 20% of global LNG supply, U.S. export terminals have been running at near-maximum capacity. In March, the U.S. exported an estimated 17.9 Bcf/d of LNG, the second-highest monthly volume on record. The following month, even as terminals strained to meet global demand, the U.S. commissioned its ninth LNG export terminal, Golden Pass LNG, adding additional capacity to an already record-breaking export machine. Meanwhile, European and Asian buyers are paying approximately six times the U.S. domestic price for natural gas.

But U.S. domestic natural gas prices? They haven’t budged since the conflict began.[1] That isn’t an accident. It is the answer to a question that critics of LNG exports have long avoided asking: if exporting more gas in theory leads to higher prices, why have prices remained steady while exports surge to historic highs?

The answer starts with production and a basic supply reality that the export critics routinely ignore. In 2025, the U.S. produced a record 118.5 Bcf/d of natural gas while consuming roughly 92 Bcf/d. That surplus is what makes robust LNG exports possible without tightening domestic supply. The U.S. doesn’t have to choose between heating American homes and growing our economy with exports that make our allies more secure. We’re doing both, and at record levels.

This surplus is the result of a market that’s working exactly as designed. U.S. producers don’t drill in the dark. They plan around where demand is headed. When LNG projects reach final investment decision (FID), they send a clear signal about future demand and producers adjust their drilling programs accordingly. That’s why domestic production has outpaced export growth nearly threefold since 2016 when the U.S. shipped its first LNG cargo from the Lower 48. This growth didn’t happen despite LNG exports. It happened because producers could see them coming. The result is a system that expands supply in step with demand while putting downward pressure on prices.

Before exports began, the benchmark Henry Hub price for U.S. natural gas averaged well above $4/MMBtu for most of the preceding decade, hitting $8.86 in 2008 and remaining above $4 as recently as 2014. By 2024, it had fallen to $2.21/MMBtu, the lowest annual average on record, with Henry Hub averaging 37% lower since the export era began than in the decade before it.

The benefits of LNG exports extend well beyond the domestic market. While European buyers scramble for spot cargoes and utilities in Asia compete for replacement supply, the U.S. is the indispensable provider. U.S. LNG exports to Europe increased 60% in 2025 compared to the year before. Qatar and the UAE together exported roughly 10 Bcf/d of LNG through the Strait of Hormuz before its effective closure. The U.S. has partially filled that gap, more than offsetting Qatar’s drop in exports so far this year. U.S. LNG is a geopolitical asset that generates real economic returns for American producers, American workers, and the federal treasury, built through years of investment, permitting approvals, and policy support.

The argument for restricting LNG exports has always been unfounded. The data from 2016 through today trace a consistent pattern: rising exports, rising production, declining domestic prices, and a more secure and strategically influential energy position for the U.S.

Meeting the world’s growing demand for reliable, secure energy requires a policy environment that supports continued investment across the LNG value chain. That means completing comprehensive, durable permitting reform to accelerate midstream infrastructure and project approvals. It also means modernizing the regulatory framework that governs upstream production and LNG export authorizations. It means investing in the pipelines, gathering systems, and processing capacity that get gas from wellhead to terminal.

For years, critics warned that exports would come at American expense. The Middle East crisis proved just the opposite. U.S. LNG is fueling economic growth and strengthening American influence in an unstable world. It’s time to build more and fully harness America’s energy abundance.