May 19, 2026
New research puts a price tag on the shale revolution’s impact on domestic natural gas prices: huge, enduring savings for American households and businesses.
A new working paper from the Energy Institute at UC Berkeley estimates that shale gas has lowered U.S. natural gas costs by roughly $237–$276 billion annually between 2007-2025, adding up to as much as $5 trillion in total savings over the past two decades.
As the largest source of power generation and a primary fuel for both industrial and residential use, natural gas is a foundational input to the American economy. Therefore, these savings ripple across the economy directly and indirectly. That means lower utility bills for households and more money in consumers’ pockets. It also means cost savings for businesses that can deploy capital, hire new employees, and lower the cost of goods – putting downward pressure on prices across the economy.
U.S. Natural Gas Prices Split from Global Markets
Since 2007, U.S. natural gas prices have stayed consistently below those in Europe and Japan, and often by a wide margin.
This divergence increases affordability at home and strengthens America’s global competitiveness, making Made in the USA products more attractive in foreign markets and incentivizing increased investment in domestic manufacturing.
Why? Shale gas.
Before the shale boom, U.S. natural gas production remained flat for years as the country prepared to import more LNG. Then, technological advancements in horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing unlocked vast domestic supply, with U.S. independent producers accounting for over 90% of onshore natural gas production. The result:
Americans Benefit from Trillions of Dollars in Savings
According to the Energy Institute’s calculations, the estimated impact includes ~$4.5–$5.3 trillion total savings (since 2007), or ~$237–$276 billion per year on average.
The paper concludes that 38% of savings went to electric power customers, while 61% went to end-use gas consumption from industrial, residential, and commercial customers.
The shale gas revolution did more than just increase production. It fundamentally impacted global energy economics. And the biggest winners have been American consumers, who continue to benefit from some of the lowest natural gas prices in the world.
Building on this progress requires durable policies that support robust domestic energy production and infrastructure development. Federal reforms that cut red tape and restore regulatory predictability are essential to lower oil and natural gas production costs, attract new investment, and deliver more affordable energy to American families and businesses.
To learn more about how smart energy policy can secure energy affordability, read AXPC’s 2026 Energy Policy Roadmap.
