December 1, 2025
From rising electricity demand and strained power grids to geopolitical unrest, one thing has been made unmistakingly clear over the last few years: the world needs more reliable, affordable energy. And as the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) 2025 World Energy Outlook (WEO) reiterates, oil and natural gas will remain central to meeting that need for decades to come.
For the first time since 2019, the IEA reinstated its Current Policies Scenario (CPS), a methodology outlining a future based on policies already enacted into law. In other words, it’s grounded in existing policies as opposed to aspirational plans and pledges. It found that global oil and gas demand remains strong through 2050, natural gas demand is significantly higher than previously projected, and we need more energy than our current systems and infrastructure can provide.
The change in direction is significant. Just two years ago, IEA predicted that transportation oil use would decline in 2026 and that growth in oil demand would “slow almost to a halt.” Now, IEA forecasters are appropriately acknowledging the realities of today’s oil market.
2025 IEA Findings More Consistent with US Government & Industry Outlook
The IEA’s projections now place the Paris-based intergovernmental organization more in the mainstream of leading energy forecasters. The charts below show that data from US and overseas sources are clear that in all modeled scenarios, oil and natural gas will continue to constitute a significant portion of the energy mix out to 2050 and beyond.
The IEA’s pivot reflects what AXPC and the industry have long understood: global demand for oil and natural gas remains strong and America’s ability to provide it is essential to meeting the world’s economic and energy needs.
A Durable Economic Engine
America’s upstream industry already supports over 3.6 million jobs nationwide and from 2008-2021, delivered more than $200 billion annually in energy savings to families. This affordable energy also powers American manufacturing, making our businesses globally competitive. The IEA’s long-term demand outlook reinforces that these economic benefits will continue.
With AI and data centers as a strong new demand driver surging across the U.S., the IEA projects far higher electricity demand than previously expected, and a large share of it is met with power generation that relies heavily on natural gas. This potentially means:
America’s Energy Exports Are a Pillar of Global Security
Over the past two decades, America’s oil and natural gas producers fundamentally transformed the global energy landscape by harnessing shale. In 2005, the U.S. imported 60% of its oil. Today, we are a net energy exporter and the world’s leading supplier of LNG.
The IEA reinforces the security value of this shift throughout its report:
Environmental Progress Will Depend on Natural Gas and American Innovation
We believe that the U.S. can meet demand and lower emissions because our industry is constantly innovating. In fact, the U.S. has led the world in emissions reductions over the past 15 years because of our industry, not despite it: natural gas has driven a 40% drop in power sector CO₂ emissions since 2005.
And now, as the IEA reports slower-than-expected renewable deployment, natural gas will remain essential for both power reliability and emissions reductions.
The World Needs More Energy
The WEO makes it clear that global energy systems are nowhere near capable of handling the growth ahead. Population increases, rising global incomes, onshoring of manufacturing, and explosive digital demand all point in the same direction: we need more energy, and oil and natural gas are not going away, they are becoming more essential.
This underscores the importance of advocating for policies that support a strong, secure, and competitive industry, while advancing permitting reform to enable critical energy infrastructure.
